Noisy Neighbours To Party Into The Night
In a Premier League season that’s brought us more twists and turns than the Norwegian rally tour, we might have expected the odd 360 degree slide out in the dirt on the final day of the season. But with a Joey Barton brain-snap, a galant attempt from Mark Hughes at a revenge Gazpacho & a late Manchester revival of the bluest kind, it all seemed a bit more like somebody flipped their Subaru Impreza straight off the side of the mountain.
This was the kind of ‘Relegation Sunday’ climax that had to be seen to be believed and one that became an instant reference point in Manchester rivalry folklore.
Over in Sunderland, United placed some early title pressure on City by netting after just 20 minutes with Rooney’s full head of luscious hair ghosting towards the back post and burying a Phil Jones cross.
Back at Etihad stadium, City had all of the ball but struggled to break down a stubborn Rangers defense. But that all changed as the first half drew to a close, as City put together a slick move that has become a trademark of their season.
Despite having spent the better part of the last 10 minutes hobbling around the park like a Polio inflicted child (we can laugh about it now, there is a vaccine), Yaya Toure made sure he had some lasting impact on the match by playing a short but perfectly weighted through ball with his one working leg into the path of Zabaleta who unleashed a shot at goal. Kenny Paddy got more than a fair chunk of glove on ball which sent it spiraling into the air and 48000 hearts collectively migrated into the mouths of the City supporters at the ground. It seemed as though an eternity passed before the ball finally fell into the corner of the net, with Zabaleta’s first goal of the season as timely as they come and Toure cutting an almost comical figure as he hobbled towards his team mates to celebrate.
As they went in for pep-talks & oranges; the sun was shining, Noel & the high flying birds were singing and City’s Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak looked on with a grin of contentment that suggested the Emiratis were getting something that resembled value for their 800 million pound outlay. The title was in City’s hands and everything appeared to be in its right place.
It was at that point that you could have spent your life savings calling psychic hotlines, for not a single one to come even close to predicting the events that unfolded in the second half. Sure, the majority would have guessed there was a Joey Barton red card on the way, but not even the clearest crystal ball could have seen it coming sandwiched between 2 QPR goals.
The first of the QPR goals came from Cisse, who kept his astonishing record alive of either scoring or being sent off in every game he has played for Rangers. He finished cooly following a terrible defensive header from Joleon Lescott who sent the ball in completely the opposite direction to which he intended.
Then came Barton’s time to do what he does best, and in a throwback to his prison days, the QPR captain managed to elbow, sucker-kick and head-butt 3 different City players all in the space of about a minute. The carnage began with the elbow to Carlos Tevez which brought about the red card, although replays suggested Barton was heavily provoked by the Argentinean striker. The red card was the catalyst for a very public unraveling from Barton, as he marched up to Sergio Aguero who had his back turned and cleated him in the back of the calf. This all made very little sense as the initial problem was with Tevez, although it is entirely possible that all prolific, plucky Argentines with questionable haircuts look the same to Joey Barton. He later said on Twitter that he was merely trying to “take 1 of their players with (him)” which, of course, seems like completely rational behaviour.
Following the dismissal, everyone assumed it would be City who would push on although it was QPR who managed to score next. Jamie Mackie caused a deathly second-place-fearing silence to spread around Etihad stadium by finishing a great counter attacking move that Manchester United fans would have greatly approved of.
City’s title bid looked in dire straits and Roberto Mancini was forced into gesturing like someone who has spent the last decade sniffing petrol. In a moment of clarity, he managed to make some key substitutions bringing on Dzeko and Ballotelli who would both go on to make significant contributions.
As the 5 minutes of injury time began, Dzeko managed to get his head to City’s 19th corner of the match (QPR were yet to have a corner) and breathe life into the match instill a lifetime of regret into the few City fans that had already left the stadium in tears of disappointment. Then just 2 minutes later, the most mind boggling of comebacks was complete when Balotelli played a cheeky pass whilst lying on the ground to Aguero who took a great first touch and finished across the face of goal.
The irony that the 2 goals that brought City victory were both scored in ‘Fergie-time’ will not be lost on United’s or City’s supporters, but this will merely add to the memorable nature of this fascinating day of football. It capped a remarkable year of football and a day of drama which also included Everton finishing above Liverpool, Arsenal holding onto 3rd place in a 5-goal thriller and in a weird twist of Irony – Spurs fans (many of whom are Jewish) becoming instant die-hard supporters of German side, Bayern Munich, in next weekend’s Champions League final.
But the glory of today belonged to City and seen as the champagne has been on ice some 44 years, it is sure to taste even colder & sweeter than any Manchester fan in blue could ever have imagined.
The Names of the Games
This list has been complied without the assistance of logic or rationale. It contains random athletes plucked from the sporting landscape whose names somehow impact on how they play their respective sports, or at the very least, conjure phonetic jizzum from commentators every time they get the ball. But for reasons that will never be completely clear, even to me, these are indisputably the best named men in sports…
10. Joost van der Westhuizen – Whenever I read his name, I hear the voice of Gordon Bray pronouncing it in such a way that excitement builds with every syllable. That is precisely what happened every time Joost scooped up the pill from the scrum base and darted up the blind side. One of the most consistent players in world rugby over a very long period, JvdW tasted World Cup glory on home turf in 1995 and scored 38 test tries, the most ever by a scrum half.
9. Inzamam-Ul-Haq – Okay, so the bloke made Boonie look like a dietician, but the punishment he dealt out to pie chuckers over the years almost required ‘Inzy’ to call for the ketchup during the drinks breaks. His broad smile and even broader abdominal region made him a big hit with fans and a legend in Pakistan. Throughout his career, Inzamam made 8,830 test runs @ 49.60 and quite possibly a bit of cash on the side.
8. Yevgeny Kafelnikov – It wasn’t just his name that bared a stark resemblance to the most famous weapon Russia has ever produced, as his double handed back hand was often unleashed with a semi-automatic force that left opponents scrambling. One of the first to play double handed off both sides, Yevgeny won 2 Slams, an Olympic gold medal, $24 million in prize money and one would imagine, a lifetime supply of ‘Wodka’ from the Kremlin for bringing glory to Mother Russia.
7. Zinadine Zidane – Obviously a man that is last in everyone’s Rollerdex, but much closer to the front page in the book of the world’s greatest footballers. It’s hotly debated if he’ll be better remembered for amazing goals such as his volley in the Champions League final of 2002 or for that infamous headbutt and subsequent sending off. I’ll remember Zidane for being just a few inches shy of going down as the greatest winner in all of sports. Deep into the second half of the World Cup final in 2006, he injured his shoulder and asked to be substituted. The French manager at the time, the genuinely certifiable Raymond Domenech, urged him to stay out there and ‘Zizou’ played on clearly hampered. Not long after in the extra time period, he cannoned a header from the edge of the area which was just tipped over the bar by Buffon. A few inches to either side would have resulted in a certain goal which would have meant that Zidane scored the winning World Cup goal with a bung shoulder. When put along side his previous World Cup triumph (in which he scored twice in the final), a European championship & the best goal ever seen in a Champions league final, Zindane would have been crowned the undisputed king of sports. Instead he gave Mazaaratti a ‘liverpool kiss’ and was sent off a disgraced man. Football can be a cruel game sometimes.
6. Mark Occhilupo – The man who could generate more power off a bottom turn than the Snowy Mountain hydroelectric dam. ‘Occy’ as he was affectionately known amongst the surfing fraternity managed one of sports great comebacks, dragging himself from the life of a sofa dwelling, puggy, borderline alco to the heights of a surfing World Title. Out of the water Occy was a real character and in it he was a powerful goofy footer known for showing the wave who was in charge.
5. Ole Gunnar Solskjær– Now close your eyes and imagine – a skinny, almost-dorky looking Peter Pan type walks into a bar. He approaches a group of fine looking ladies who at first appear disinterested. He extends a hand and says “Solskjær, Ole Gunnar Solskjær.” Their interest immediately perks up and their panties literally melt off as the pick of the bunch follows him to the nearest bathroom cubicle. The baby faced Norweigan also had a knack for scoring on the pitch as he netted 91 times for United, the most memorable being the winner in that Champions League Final.
4. Zinzan Brooke – Okay, so his name is really Murray, but he changed it by deedpole and became one of the most formidable number 8′s to ever pull on a rugby jersey. Unlike his Flight of the Concorde namesake, Murray was one mean bugger who could hit the line at speed and tackle like he had energizer batteries inserted in his tail pipe.
3. Metta World Peace – The Artist Formally Known As Artest was thrust under the international spotlight of infamy for being the catalyst for the craziest NBA brawl ever witnessed. The ‘Malice at the Palace’ was sparked after a fan threw a diet coke on Artest following a small altercation with the Piston’s Ben Wallace. Clearly displaying his street side & dislike of diet beverages, Artest jumped into the crowd and started hitting a fan he thought was responsible for throwing the drink. The violence erupted both on the court and in the stands and the players involved lost over $11 million due to suspensions. After a name change & an apparent leaf turn, it appeared MWP was the new champion of good karma. But his recent flagrant elbow on James Harden showed that World Peace is nothing more than an unattainable utopic fantasy.
2. Fuifui Moimoi – A commentators wet dream, Foifoi caught our attention with hard hits, straight running and questionable hairstyles. Tongan born, Kiwi raised but a bonafide league star in the land of Oz, the huge unit showed he can’t even be shaken down off the field with the woman who accused him of sexual misconduct being charged herself for attempted blackmail.
1. Björn Borg – Back in the day he was known for his fruity headbands and the fact that if he shaved he would have made a very attractive woman. But all that aside, Björn Borg’s name translates directly from Swedish to English as ‘Bear Fortress’. How Chuck Norris is that? I mean, if you knew you were up against some bloke called Bear Fortress, you’d have a tough time keeping your duds unsoiled let alone getting the mental edge. Life after tennis has also been interesting with Borg establishing a range of boxer shorts which, considering they are plastered with his name all over, are a very apt title for men’s underwear.
Bear Fortress wins again
It’s All About Drogba
Drogba hits the turf... again
How do you knock a 6-foot-3 / 85kg African over with a strong gust of wind? You hand a whistle to someone standing in his vicinity.
For fans of the world game who were raised on a strict diet of full contact sports, there are certain footballers whose on field antics can be particularly unpalatable. These players usually trade on a currency of highly skilled football or flashes of splendor as opposed to an endearingly high work ethic and dogged determination.
Chelsea forward, Didier Drogba, is one such player who can be characterized as equal parts brilliance & frustration.
In the recent game against Barcelona, the full spectrum of ‘the Drog’ was on display for all to see. The big Ivorian spent the vast majority of the first half either in an offside position or lying on his back, clutching a random part of his body and withering like a woman in the throes of labour.
His theatrics even began to anger his own fans who were whistling and jeering him, but rightfully so as the Chelsea striker seemingly spent more time on the grass than Bob Marley.
But in the two added minutes of the first half, tacked on in a large part due to Drogba’s never ending injury crises, the jeers turned to cheers as Didier cooly finished a classy Chelsea counterattack.
The move started just inside the Chelsea defensive half as Lampard robbed Messi, of all people, before playing a classy angled chip over towards a fast-moving Ramires. His first touch off the chest was perfect as it sent the ball goal bound and the young Brasilian then turned on the burners to find himself clear in space. As the flustered Barcelona defense converged on Ramires, he sent a clever ball across the goalmouth to an unmarked Drogba, whose first time left foot shot did enough to beat the scrambling Valdez. As expected, Stamford Bridge erupted into rapturous celebration of what was to be the decisive goal of the match. 
According to statistics compiled by a UK newspaper, Drogba went down on 6 occassions, spending a total of 4 minutes 37 seconds lying on the ground, in the first half alone (10 occasions/6:30 mins for the match). You don’t need a calculator to realise that that is almost 10% of the entire first half! This constant stream of ‘injuries’ left Drogba’s poor, ravaged body in the kind of condition needed to score a Champion’s League semi-final goal against the world’s best side.
The whole first half was an uncannily accurate metaphor for Didier Drogba, the player. Clearly a skilled striker to be reckoned with, but also a man that has faced constant allegations throughout his career such as diving to win penalties, feigning injuries and having a propensity for high drama.
It is not a well guarded secret why players go down in football. Just a small chance of a referee awarding a penalty gives a far greater potential for a goal than shooting off balance or maintaining the ball in a non-goal scoring position. Even when outside the box, free kicks in mid field can slow the game down, improve field position or provide good opportunities for goals from set pieces.
It is engrained into the culture of the sport and will continue until there are changes to the laws of the game or more players are punished retrospectively.
But what is less clear is to why Drogba chooses to stay down, every – single – time.
Drogba often stays down for such lengthy periods that you would swear he is a playboy bunny determined to help ‘Heff’ kick his reliance on Viagra.
So just why does such a talented footballer persist with these childish antics?
One of the potential benefits is that it wastes playing time as valuable minutes are chewed up whilst players receive treatment. However in Drogba’s case, he was partaking in his amateur theatrics long before the Chelsea goal. Therefore any time wasted, in the first half at least, would have been likely to facilitate a 0-0 result at home. This would have left Chelsea facing the highly improbable task of a draw or better at Camp Nou to progress.
Perhaps staying down gives players a breather, but it was only the first half, so one would imagine it was more disruptive than beneficial to contrive constant breaks in play.
Maybe it was Chelsea’s game plan to stop Barcelona finding their fast passing rhythm, but if that was the case it appeared that Drogba alone was burdened with the task of manufacturing unscheduled stops.
What appears to be the most likely scenario, is that Didier Drogba wants it all to be about Didier Drogba. He wants the world to know he was fouled and in great pain, however he’ll be willing to play through it after a mere few minutes lying on the deck.
He wants the medical staff fussing over him, which is not surprising given the ‘quality’ of Doctor that Chelsea are hiring these days (see Eva Carneiro inset).
But most importantly, he want the world to know that he is genuinely hurt and did not go down ‘light’ just to win a free kick.
A key aspect of this approach that Drogba fails to recognise, is that with every passing pseudo-injury he loses a little more credibility. After almost a decade in the Premier League, the credibility barrel is scraped dry & splintering.
This kind of terrible acting that brings the game to a halt ruins players reputations and is the sole reason that football will never be the number one sport in Australia; a country were sport is synonymous with testosterone-hardened blokes who don’t stay down unless they’re hospital bound. Maybe a few games of rugby would be just the tonic Didier needs to stop his ridiculous approach to physicality in football, or failing that, someone better order him a huge can of Man-Up.
For Christ’s Sake Bubber, Just Talk About Golf
Lying deep in the woods on the second playoff hole of the Masters at Augusta National, it was pretty clear Bubba Watson needed some divine intervention to have any shot at victory. It is still up for debate as to whether Watson actually received a helping hand from the heavens or if the shot was more a product of his approach to the game – one that is characterized by a rare blend of skill, luck & a formidable pair of testicals. But either way, the likeable lefty curved the ball some 50 metres to make the miracle shot which set up the win.
As he stood on the side of the 10th green, microphone in hand and the green jacket resting snugly around his typically plump golf-sculpted torso, Bubba made it abundantly clear as to why he believed he had achieved such success.
Watson began his acceptance speech with the oldest of gags, tapping the mic and asking “is this thing on?” and followed up with a dramatic pause that could have easily belonged to a reality TV host about to tell us who was no longer welcome on the island. Bubba then went into college frat boy mode and officially began his thankyous by saying “First off, to all my fans I’ve gotta say ‘Go Dawgs!’”
It was then Watson’s speech took an unexpected twist as in one sentence Bubba was transformed from an affable-wedge-wielding-jester cut straight from the Caddy Shack mould to something resembling an evangelical preacher.
“And then second I’d like to thank my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ”
Now Bubba, did you really have to take this fine moment of sporting triumph and use it to pedal your Religious wares? Surely a silent prayer to God would have been just as effective, as it’s fair to say s/he would not have had to be standing greenside or at ‘home’ in front of the box to hear your spiritual shout out.
And what are we to make of you throwing the Lord in there during the middle of your speech? Have you not seen the Grammys? You either begin or end your speech with a reference to the Lord, not just throw Him in the middle like some Great Uncle that used to drive you to the practice range.
After all, according to your doctrine, without the Great Almighty you wouldn’t have any fans, so there is no point thanking them first if it was your Holy Father who let ‘The Dawgs’ out in the first place. And what did you expect those ‘Dawgs’ to do following your reference to the man upstairs? Put down the beer bong, quit their howling and genuflect?
I’m generally curious as to what it was old JC saved Bubba from in the first place? It clearly wasn’t a demeaning nickname. Maybe growing up, Bubba was destined for a childhood of lighting cherry bombs and shoplifting from Walmart before he discovered a pitch and putt around the back of the Presbytery.
Don’t get me wrong – I like Bubba Watson. He seems like a funny guy and is a far more endearing champion than the likes of Tiger Woods, who was spiting dummies & kicking clubs as Bubba was marching towards his first major. But do I really need his religious preferences being rammed down my throat? I’d much prefer it if he just stuck to talking about Golf, and mentioning those that have helped him along the way who didn’t happen to perish painfully some two thousand years previous.
There are those that might say that Watson played some solid golf for 4 days and had earnt the right to thank whoever he wanted. But it just all seemed a bit contrived and the hoots from the crowd just left things looking like a bad commercial for the Christian movement.
Watson’s Masters victory and ensuing speech sent waves through the bible belt of the US turning him into a household name overnight. All this attention undoubtedly boosted Bubba’s marketability in this region and amongst Christians specifically. For any God-fearing middle American who’s ever picked up a putter, there is a new Saviour on the scene – just instead of walking on water he hits over it with a nine iron.
Watson regularly turns to Twitter as a platform for spreading the word of God and is clearly intent on drawing no boundaries between religion and the sporting world.
Far too often, the US is guilty of feeding the Christian movement through sport; whether it be Tim Tebow spoiling perfectly good eye makeup with biblical verse numbers, Jeremy Lin fuelling the Christian arm of ‘Linsanity’ with his favourite Bible verses or the fact that the final heave down field with time running out is routinely referred to as a ‘Hail Mary’.
If nothing else, this attempt by Watson to wear his faith on his sleeve demonstrates the gaping cultural crevice between middle American sporting stars ready to champion the religious right and the cream of Australia’s sporting crop. Granted, Jason Stevens was happy to talk up his Hillsong-funded abstinence which probably helped to sell a few more of his books and Matthew Hayden liked to mention his faith, but by and large the Australian sporting elite do not let their Religious preferences define them.
I hope Watson continues to win Golf tournaments but just pray his plan to “make golf an avenue for Jesus” does not make the cut. For a 3-rounds-a-year-hacker such as myself, there is definitely no place for God on the golf course. Between the limitless mulligans, kicks out onto the fairway and the mortal sin of unraked bunkers, it is the last place I want the all-seeing eyes of the Lord.
‘Newy’ Success The Final Frontier For Bennett
Bennett - forever the happy camper
It is easy to assume Wayne James Bennett was coaxed to Newcastle by Tinkler’s millions, with China’s thirst for black energy ultimately funding one of the most exceptional coach poaching operations in rugby league’s history. After all, the decorated trainer is only human and money speaks a language in which even the most moral of men appear to be fluent.
There is also the possibility that the allure of living in a place that features on Lonely Planet’s top 10 cities list was a major factor in Bennett’s decision to defect to the steel city, as the likes of Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane are yet to feature on that list.
But above all else, one would hope that the strongest magnet that attracted Rugby League’s biggest fish to the slightly polluted pond of ‘Newie’ was the challenge of bringing league glory to a city that expects no less.
Much like his tenure at the Broncos, Bennett is back in charge in a one team town that are essentially the heart and soul of the area’s sporting culture. Falcons, Breakers, Pirates, Jaegars & Jets have all played second fiddle to the men in shiny armor over the years, but this top dog status brings with it a huge amount of expectation from footy fans across the Hunter region.
Bennett generally sets a relatively austere tone with his teams and his father figure approach could be just the tonic the knights need after the recent seasons dealing with drug allegations and a the reputation of a party culture at the club.
But despite coaching credentials featuring an unmatched 7 grand final victories with 2 different clubs, multiple world club championships and an impressive representative record, there are still those that suggest Bennett’s success has been largely due to the fact he has coached some exceptional players and talented teams.
A skilled drovesman no doubt, but one who has definitely had the cattle.
For the non-believers that have failed to convert to the Church of Bennett, it appears that there is some fodder that exists that can be used to dispute Bennett’s existence as a true to life coaching Messiah.
Over his 20 years at the helm in Brisbane, Bennett coached a disproportional number of rugby league all-time greats and fielded some teams with genuine stars from 1 to 17.
The trend continued at St George where he inherited a strong team which was vastly improved by the influx of players who arrived due to his reputation as a coach. Many of these players and coaches were obtained due to the formidable bonds Bennett had had forged with them previously and there was a prominent southern migration that was enough to send tingles down David Attenborough’s spine.
Dragons fans will be eternally grateful that Bennett ultimately helped them shake the tag of underachieving ‘chokers’. But as one of the real standout teams in the competition over the past 3 seasons, it could be argued that a return of only one premiership was, much like Wayne, a little on the slim side.
Another member of the worldwide coaching fraternity who has achieved prolonged success with multiple teams, but who has also done it with the help of some of his sports best ever players, is former Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers coach, Phil Jackson.
The similarities between the two coaches extend further as much like Bennett, Jackson is a noted man manager as opposed to supreme tactician, both men’s coaching philosophies extend far beyond the playing arena and training ground, during their playing days they were both handy, yet by no means stars of their respective sports and they both stand alone at the top of the coaching pile in regard to championships (or premierships) won as a coach.
Like Bennett’s doubters who suggest that his success has largely been a function of the talented teams he has coached, Phil Jackson’s 11 championships will always be coupled with an asterix noting that either Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant were involved in winning every single one of them.
There are strong murmurs within basketball circles that Jackson will take the reins at the New York Knicks next season which, in many respects, would mirror Bennett’s move to Newcastle. Jackson won 2 championships in New York as a player (although sat out the 1970 championship season following surgery) which obviously forged a strong connection between himself and the city, but it would be the challenge the Knicks presents that would hold the greatest appeal for the man dubbed the ‘Zen Master’.
In the same vein as the Newcastle Knights, the Knicks have a talented roster that is far too often characterised using terms like ‘potential’ and ‘underachievement’.
If Jackson takes up the post in New York and enjoys some success there, he will not only make Spike Lee ecstatic but will also cement his reputation as the greatest coach in NBA history.
Bennett has already accepted his challenge and it is too early to make the call on whether or not he can reach the pinnacle with the Knights. They have already tasted defeats against two of Bennett’s former employers, the Dragons and the Broncos, and the early running shows them to be a little off the pace.
However they have also showed flashes of brilliance and, at times, a steely resolve which is a common characteristic of sides coached by Bennett. They have recruited well welcoming back a crafty rake in Danny Buderus, the hard running Kade Snowden and Bennett loyalist Darius Boyd. As Bennett himself said despite the weekend’s loss to Melbourne “I’m pretty optimistic about where we can go.”
Given the right time and conditions, coal can be transformed into diamonds and that is exactly what Tinkler had in mind when he recruited Bennett to his rugby league project. If Wayne Bennett can turn a side better known for controversy off the field than performances on it into a premiership winning team, he too will be registered in the sporting almanacs for eternity as the high mark for rugby league coaches.
Thorpedo Disarmed
Now the waters of the South Australian Aquatic Centre have stagnated, Ian Thorpe’s London Olympic dream can finally be declared, to borrow a cockney term, ‘Brown Bread’.
The Thorpedo has sunk at the deep end; a now harmless Olympic relic condemned to a life of rotting on the pool bed, the chlorine slowly rusting its shell casing with the demise of the once potent weapon juxtaposed against the ‘no bombing’ sign that hangs poolside.
Maybe I’m erring on the side of the dramatic here, but the last few weeks have certainly been no picnic for our former Olympic champ and it’s safe to say that Crowded Houses’ ‘Don’t Dream It’s Over’ might be on high rotation at Thorpe Manor for some time to come.
Thorpey’s demise puts us Aussie sports fans at a crossroads. We can either break out the violins and soothe Ian with a concerto of former glories or participate in the great Aussie pastime of Thorpe-bashing, an activity from which I derive more pleasure than Margaret Court does from removing ‘The queens’ from every deck of cards she comes across.
Let’s be clear about one thing; this comeback was risky business. So much so that we would not have begrudged the Thorpster sliding out onto the pool deck wearing only a business shirt, some white socks, a pair of Wayfarers and his speedos whilst urging the crowd to take their old records off the shelf.
This risk clearly did not pay off, with the repercussions of Thorpe’s failure to even qualify for the events finals resonating far beyond his spot on the team bound for London.
For starters, his name can immediately be stricken from the record from any previous and future ‘greatest swimmers of all time’ debates. His reputation as an athlete has been more ‘soiled’ than simply ‘tarnished’ and no amount of glory-laden-chlorinated-water from the likes of Sydney or Athens will be able to wash it clean.
The question must be asked – why did he fail so miserably? Are money troubles the wrong motivation for a return to sport? Was it the bag of gold paid by Swimming Australia to fund the comeback hidden somewhere in the budgey smugglers that slowed Thorpey down? Have the next wave of swimmers taken the sport to a level that is unattainable for his post-prime body?
Whatever the reason, it now means that all bets are off, Mr Thorpe. We tolerated your foray into men’s fashion, because of the golden accessories you had hanging around your neck when you stood on the podium. We put up with your vomit inducing tv program (somehow ‘nauseating’ didn’t quite do it justice) because you were superhuman in the pool and retired at your peak.
But now, at 29 years of age, you’re the 12th best swimmer in Australia in your pet event, the 200-free. I doubt the big brands are going to be knocking one another over in the race to sign you to a long term deal and the general public will be far less accepting of your side projects. Personally, I’d be more likely to shell out my hard earned to come and see you in the touring circus as ‘Flipper-man’ than I would to see you as an after dinner speaker.
At risk of patting the Stereotype Dog here, swimmers are largely uninteresting people. It might have something to do with it being a largely lonesome profession, where the black line must be travelled over and over again in preparation for big races. There’ve been a few exceptions to the bland rule over the years – Leisel Jones certainly showed some verve when she burst onto the scene but that might have had something to do with the fact she was only one year out of ‘floaties’ when she competed in her first Olympics, Hayley Lewis had enough personality to talk us into eating more bananas and Kieran Perkins at least entertained us with his ability to swim amazing times with an rather large chip rested on his shoulder. Ian Thorpe is not one of these exceptions.
I don’t profess to have a crystal ball, but at this point the best I can see for you Ian, is pandering to Bruce McAvany on network Seven’s Olympic coverage or maybe a spot flogging ab-machines on day time television.
Hindsight is always 20-20, but maybe you should have thought twice before following in the comeback footsteps of Huegil, Trickett & every rock and roll band on this year’s “A Day on the Green” bill. Like these aging rockers, you also now forced to trade only on hits of the past, because your failure has cost you your superhuman allure, and all the dollar signs that come with it.
I don’t to know Ian personally and cannot speak of his preferences, but if the rumours that have dogged him throughout his career hold any water, then he still has one option to reinvigorate his ailing career. Yes, the ‘Magda Makeover’ could provide the vocation resuscitation the Thorpeado is in dire need of. Between the range of pearl necklaces for men (an instant punchline), the fruity vocal undertones, the regular appearances on Australia’s next top model & the West End Musical poses (see below), you’d be hard up finding someone who was genuinely surprised if Thorpe came out. If it were to happen, it may just open a few doors for the former swimming champion and that is by no means just a reference to the one from the closet.
Sometimes, sport gets it right.
With every passing day, our world seems to get a little more cynical. The need to deconstruct things, to peer behind the curtain, to find the irony, generally to meme-ify our lives is very strong. One moment you’re a Ugandan warlord leading an army of soul-destroyed children and the next, George Clooney is coming after you. One day you make a celebrated film uncovering said warlord, and 72 hours later you’re a hashtag punchline.
It’s hard to find a lot of joy in our world anymore. Raw emotion is tempered by the public eye, or at least guarded, while we wait for the other shoe to drop.
This is as true in sport as it is in life. Often, our love of a game is overshadowed by the behaviour of the players, the administrators and the fans. When it comes to cynicism in sport, the pinnacle is surely the sport of football. And the cynical elite of football remains the English Premier League.
The 2011-2012 season has been a dark one for English Football. The Premier League has been beset by incidents of racism, one of which lead to the resignation of the national manager. Puerile behaviour has been seen from two of its most prominent, popular clubs – Manchester United and Liverpool – that threaten to push future clashes into the violent days of yesteryear. Highly paid superstars underperform (or refuse to play at all), coaches are thrown to the wolves and the usual drunken incidents and occasional arrests still pepper the English tabloids. All of this – and without once mentioning Joey Barton’s Twitter account, or Wayne Rooney’s hair.
Last Saturday, however, an incident occurred during an FA Cup quarter-final tie which – for the briefest of moments – cut through the rubbish and narcissism and reminded us that the players, the fans and administrators are all very human.
With 5 minutes remaining in the first half, the score tied at 1-1, Bolton Wanderers midfielder Fabrice Muamba collapsed untouched to the ground, his heart no longer beating. In an instant, referee Howard Webb and players – many of them Tottenham opposition – were frantically waving medical staff on to the ground.
Fabrice Muamba is 23 years old. He is hardly much older than his 3 year old son Josh, and younger than his 27 year old fiancee, Shauna.
As he lay on the turf of Tottenham’s White Hart Lane, the actions of medical staff making it obvious to the crowd that CPR was being administered, managers and players looked on in horror. The audience fell silent, followed by sporadic, confused bursts of applause. The Bolton fans began to chant Muamba’s name and their Tottenham opposites followed, hoping their calls would be heard by a young man on the brink of death. Muamba was rushed to a waiting ambulance, medics shocking his chest with a defibrillator along the way. The referee ordered disconsolate players into the dressing sheds and the game was swiftly abandoned.
In the days that followed this sad incident, the reaction of the sporting community brought momentary joy to a cynical world.
Mention the names Christiano Ronaldo, Luis Suarez or Jermaine Defoe to any football lover and you will be met with varying degrees of gushing praise or spitting vitriol. These are controversial, talented men who at times have demonstrated gross vanity and poor behaviour.
Playing against Muamba that evening, Defoe was photographed in tears, standing over the frantic medics, being embraced by his teammate Gareth Bale. Behind them, Rafael Van der Vaart clasped his hands together in prayer and looked towards the heavens. The following morning, Defoe was in the carpark of the London Chest Hospital, arm-in-arm with his mother, to visit his Bolton opposition.
Luis Suarez did very little, but like so many other players, did what little he could. He dedicated his FA Cup goal to Muamba and went to his Twitter account – so recently employed to apologise, or mount a misguided defence of his acts, to say simply “Keep fighting buddy. Don’t give up”.
A world away from Bolton, at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Christiano Ronaldo and many of his teammates took the field wearing shirts that read “Get Well Soon Muamba.”
There was something for everyone in this sporting story that was bigger than any game.
The scientists among us will point to the professionalism of the Tottenham and Bolton medical staff, and the presence of ambulances and paramedics at all fixtures. The response in those first few moments are undoubtedly why Muamba is alive today. Imagine if this had been a local kick-around, if that man was your husband or partner or friend…
The religious will give thanks for the spontaneous eruption of prayer, urged on by the spreading tweets of footballing superstars and the undershirt of Gary Cahill – a former Bolton teammate of Muamba’s, who now plays for Chelsea. We have gotten so used to players lifting their shirts to reveal personal messages like “Why Always Me?”, it was nice to see an absence of “me” in the simple message “Pray 4 Muamba”. This gesture escaped a booking, though back in October, Mario Balotelli was not so lucky. Imagine Gary Cahill taking the field as a defender and friend, wearing that sentiment on your chest, trusting yourself to score…
The humanists will scoff at the talk of deities and take inspiration from the Tottenham season ticket holder – Dr. Andrew Deaner, a cardiologist – who made his way onto the turf and ended up riding in the ambulance with Muamba and Bolton manager Owen Coyle. The religious will say God put him there, but perhaps we can all agree it is a good story. Imagine being the ground steward – normally the subject of drunken abuse and violence – suddenly asked to allow a doctor on to the pitch as confusion reigned…
The romantics will relate the stories of the White Hart Lane crowd, who fell silent at the collapse of an enemy combatant. Suddenly creed and colour held little meaning, as horrified supporters watched doctors trying to restart a young man’s heart. Imagine being part of that crowd, cheering the man’s name, willing him to his feet, applauding the cancellation of the game and then filing out of the stands silently into the North London chill…
More than anything, the incident served to remind us of the ridiculous, idle nature of the sporting contest. Barring the odd UFC fan, we are not Caesars. Nobody is meant to die. I would like to think that if captain Scott Parker had turned to the Tottenham crowd, he would have seen 36,000 thumbs all turned upwards, held high in the air. We love our rolling circus of sport, but when the whistle blows, everybody is meant to walk away.
Thankfully – perhaps improbably – Muamba is alive. He has spoken to his family, is moving his limbs and doctors are hopeful of a recovery. It is still a sad story – a young man and his family have been shaken, his health and career in jeopardy, but sometimes the world of sport throws colour on our gray world. Sometimes, sport gets it right.
The Buck Must Stop With Roman
If you listen closely enough, you can almost hear the managerial guillotine being sharpened by one of Roman Abramovich’s heavies round Stamford Bridge way. With Carlo Ancelotti’s claret barely dry, even the pseudo-mobster doing the sharpening probably thought it would have been longer than this before he was preparing the blade for what has now become a yearly ritual.
The ever filling basket of heads contains some of the biggest names in management – world cup winners, self-ordained special ones and others that have won virtually every club trophy up for grabs on the continent. But the soon to be latest victim, Andres Villas Boas was by far the biggest ‘experiment’ of the bunch – brought in with the fanfare and expense of a star player but waving a C.V. that had fewer lines than a limerick.
But due to fractions amongst the squad, a poor run of results and some very public spats with some of the club’s ageing stars, the metaphorical destiny of the young Portuguese looks more and more assured to involve a rolling cranium.
For Villas Boas, the writing has been on the wall since Mr Abramovich began showing up to the Chelsea training grounds with the regularity of a vegetarian, which one could only suspect, lead the young manager to suffer a few unwanted bowel movements himself. Then, following the Champions league game against Napoli, the Chelsea owner demanded to know why the experienced trio of Lampard, Cole & Essien did not start during the 3-1 defeat.
Since that time it’s all gone a bit Young & the Restless at Chelsea – with Lampard (the restless) describing his relationship with the manager as ‘not ideal’, the Manager in turn joking that he and Lampard were not married to each other and David Luiz (the young) implying in an interview given in Portuguese that Lampard should remember he is only an ‘employee’. This unfolding soap opera has been very embarrassing to the club and is fairly concrete proof that the dressing room divisions are beyond repair.
Many believe that the only reason AVB has received a stay of execution thus far, has been the costs that would be incurred by Abramovich if he were to remove him. With an initial outlay of around £28 million spent bringing Villa Boas in from Porto, his hiring has turned out to be the most expensive failed experiment since John Travolta tried to take Scientology to the big screen.
Despite implementing a bottomless pockets policy since taking charge at Chelsea and being a regular on the Forbes rich list, even a man like Abramovich begins to feel the sting of £64 million pounds spent over the last 4 years on managerial changes alone.
It is with this in mind that I must suggest that Roman Abramovich should for once keep his supersized wallet (or more accurately diamond encrusted money clip) in his pocket, and after removing Villas Boas, take the Chelsea management role himself.
Now, here me out – whilst I’d agree that this seems like an suggestion that borders on the ridiculous, don’t you think the Chelsea players might just find something extra during the second half with a well connected Russian giving the half time talks? After all, he came out of the other side of the ‘Russian Aluminium Wars’ with a fortune and a face full of hardened stubble, and that feuding over the control of the smelters was said to have cost around 100 lives.
Who would ever doubt he could excel in the area of premier league diva motivation? Never underestimate fear as the greatest motivator of all.
The back four may just tighten up significantly if they knew that shipping a couple more goals could see Polonium 210 winding up in the drink bottles. Torres might find his goal scoring mojo if he thought his wife and child might be kidnapped by burly henchmen . Even Raul Meireles, a man with a hardened image and the ink of death row inmate, would probably find an extra yard of pace.
This whole scenario seems as likely as Tony Soprano taking charge at the New York Red Bulls, which itself is an imaginative scenario worth contemplating. I could just see Thierry Henry telling locker room stories about his undefeated season at Arsenal, only to be cut short by Mr Soprano with a menacing reminder that he’s only ever as good as his last envelope.
But for the Russian billionaire Abramovich, his last 9 years have been spent closely monitoring the football club, attended training sessions, watched countless matches and at times making his presence known in the locker room. Half the reason he has been forced to install a revolving door at Chelsea, for managers use only, are his strong opinions regarding squad recruitment and who should be playing.
Isn’t it time for the Gremlin with access to the Kremlin to take full control of his beloved Chelsea, particularly as it has been his unyielding views which have been the main problem for the various managers he has put in place. Granted, I can’t imagine to the it would attract a huge number of Europe’s top players to Chelsea, but there is little doubt their current squad might start to play as though their lives depended on it.
NRL 2012 – Fearless Predictions
With the 2012 NRL season only hours away, I thought it was high time to commit my thoughts on the season to the internet for posterity. If nothing else they should provide a good laugh in about six months time.
Increasingly, predicting the top 8 sides at the start of the season is an impossible task. Who would have thought 12 months ago that the Roosters, Titans and Raiders would figure amongst the also rans in 2011, or that Manly Warringah, a team which had fallen over the line into 8th place the previous season before losing their young halfback to Canterbury, would finish 2nd on their way to winning the premiership?
Despite this, I have stuck my neck out and predicted the finishing position of all 16 teams. Further, I have separated the teams into four groups
- Will not make the 8
- May make the 8
- Should make the 8
- Will make the 8
When I am wrong about sides in the middle two groups, I will claim that those reading were given fair warning about the uncertain nature of the prediction.
For each team, I am providing a summary of some vital statistics before getting into the rationale behind my prediction. This includes their 2011 finishing position, an ‘expert’ consensus in the form of aggregated predictions from the Rugby League journalists at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Daily Telegraph, as well as the percentage chance each team has of winning the premiership and making the finals, as implied by Betfair’s odds on the 29th February.
The ‘Expert Consensus’ finishing position was calculated by scoring each of the expert top 8 predictions (8 pts for 1st place, 7 points for 2nd place and so on) and then ranking the total points for each team, and the ‘Chance of Finals’ is simply what proportion of the experts tipped that team to make the 8.
For each team I have separately discussed the changes to the roster and my prediction for 2012. The Roster analysis section aims to highlight not just the major offseason signings, but also teams which were missing key players for a significant amount of time in 2011, with the implication being that having these players fully fit for 2012 can provide a similar boost to signing a new face.
A quick analysis of the betfair odds illustrates the difficulty of my task – even those teams ranked at the bottom of the league are felt to have a roughly 30% chance of making the 8! It is this uncertainty that makes every fan approach each season with such hope and expectation.
I will offer no prediction for the eventual premier, other than to say that I think they will definitely come from my ‘Will make the finals’ group.
Without further ado, onto the predictions
Will not make the 8
16. Penrith Panthers
2011 Season – 12th (9 – 15)
Expert Consensus – 15th (14% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 31% chance of finals, 3% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
Penrith have lost significant experience and quality from their pack with Petero Civoniceva, 2003 premiership winner Trent Waterhouse and Matthew Bell all departing. Off season recruitment has focussed on partially replenishing the depth of the forwards; however Clint Newton, Chris Armit, Cameron Ciraldo and Danny Galea all seem to lack the quality of the key departures. Sam Mckendry and Tim Grant will be given the opportunity to step up and become leaders of the pack. A fully fit Michael Gordon (played only 9 matches in 2011), Luke Lewis (14) and Michael Jennings (15) are expected to provide a boost.
2012 Outlook
The side which finished 2nd in the 2011 home and away rounds struggled to get out of the blocks in 2012, and never really threatened to reach the finals. The kicking game which had led to so many tries in 2011 did not prove as effective in 2012 which often led to the Panthers struggling to score points, and injuries to key personal did not help. The roster appears to have gone backwards since last year, and their does seem to be a sense out Penrith way that this will be a rebuilding year under new coach Ivan Cleary, with football boss Phil Gould recently stating that the teams goal for the year was to train hard, play hard, and compete every week. Penrith’s hopes of making the 8 this season rely on the fitness of the key outside backs and Luke Walsh’s ability to spark them – significant improvement is required in this area from 2011. They may not come last, but it is hard to see them figuring in the finals of what looks to be an exceptionally even competition.
15. Gold Coast Titans
2011 Season – 16th (6 – 18)
Expert Consensus – 16th(0% chance of finals)
Welcome to the GC, bitch!
Betfair Odds – 38% chance of finals, 2% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
The Titans were constantly in the news last season as they signed several of the biggest free agent names. Jamal Idris and Beau Champion arrive to bolster a backline that looked undersized and short of strike power last season, while Nate Myles and Luke Douglas will be welcome additions to the ageing pack. Myles should be a like for like replacement for the departing Anthony Laffranchi, while the inspirational Preston Campbell will leave a hole in the Titans playmaking ranks that has struggled since the departure of Matt Rogers. The loss of Nathan Friend will not be felt given he was restricted to 4 matches last season. A full year from Ashley Harrison (played 13 matches in 2011) and winger Kevin Gordon (2) would provide a boost.
2012 Outlook
From an early point last season the focus for the Titans seemed to be more recruitment for 2012 rather than performance in 2011. On paper, the team closely resembled the highly successful outfit of 2009-10, however several of the older stars who had been integral to that success seemed to noticeably slow in 2011, and the younger players of the Gold Coast were unable to pick up the load. The Coast has recruited well and on paper are a side that could easily trouble the top 8. Concerns surround the lack of a 2nd playmaking option to support Scott Prince, and the downturn in Prince’s form last year. The former Tigers playmaker was consistently excellent throughout his three seasons with the joint venture club, and was the key player in the Titan’s first four seasons. At 32 (Happy Birthday for Monday, Scott!) it seems unlikely that Prince will rediscover top form, and without that, I don’t see the titans making the 8.
14. Sydney Roosters
2011 Season – 16th (10 – 14)
Expert Consensus – 12th (10% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 37% chance of finals, 3% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
The key departures of Todd Carney, Nate Myles and Jason Ryles have not been matched by the quality of the arrivals, but some may consider it a case of addition by subtraction with Carney and Myles (rightly or wrongly) blamed for much of the unrest at the club last season. Young prop Martin Kennedy sparked origin talk after several damaging performances early last season, however injury cut his contribution to just 8 games last year. A full season from him will go a long way to offsetting the losses in the forwards. Young centre Tautau Moga is expected to make an impact during his first season in first grade. A lot more playmaking weight will fall on the shoulders of blues half Mitchell Pearce in the absence of Carney.
2012 Outlook
"Junior, Junior, Junior, Junior......"
The Roosters season fell apart after round 4 last year, and it did not take long before all the journos who had praised Carney and Brian Smith came to bury them with relish. This is a huge season for Mitchell Pearce. His predecessors in the NSW number 7 jersey, Brett Kimmorley and Andrew Johns, made a habit of leading their teams into September each season. Pearce will have his hands full getting this squad to the finals, but if he is able to it will be the coming of age of him as a player. The Roosters finished last season in great style winning their last four matches, and will be hoping to continue that roll early in 2012.
13. South Sydney Rabittohs
2011 Season – 10th (11 – 13)
Expert Consensus – 8th (57% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 47% chance of finals, 5% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
The major off season addition was Matt King, whom the red and green will be hoping has a bit more left in the tank than Matt Orford did upon his return from England. Sam Burgess and Roy Asotasi played a combined 12 matches last year so expect the bunnies pack to be even stronger in 2012 if those two take the field regularly, though an injury free season may seem an optimistic expectation for Roy given his history at the Rabbitohs. The task of replacing Chris Sandow will fall to rookie Adam Reynolds and it is here that Souths appear significantly weaker than last season. Reynolds will need to produce a Cherry – Evans type debut season to adequately replicate the impact Sandow had upon the club during 2011.
2012 Outlook
Each of the last four seasons has commenced with high hopes for the Rabbitohs, but they are yet to add to their one finals appearance since reinstatement to the competition. Chris Sandow was immense for the bunnies last year and his absence will be keenly felt. Daly Cherry-Evans has raised the bar for rookie halfbacks coming into the league and Adam Reynolds will certainly be feeling the pressure to perform. The Rabbitohs have enough class in the pack and strikepower in the backs to cause problems for any team on their day. Service to the outside men has been a problem in the past, with Greg Inglis underutilised last season, and unless the bunnies can fix this they are unlikely to make the 8. That they will be relying on a rookie to address this leads me to conclude they will not be playing in September this season.
12. St.George-Illawarra Dragons
2011 Season – 5th (14 – 1 – 9)
Expert Consensus – 10th (38% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 52% chance of finals, 5% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
The Dragons backline has lost a lot of strikepower due to the departure of Darius Boyd and the retirement of Mark Gasnier. Those gaps are expected to be filled by the locally produced Stanley brothers, Chase and Kyle. The loss of several bench forwards should be ably filled if youngsters Mitch Rein and Jack De Belin flourish.
2012 Outlook
Will Jamie see enough chances at goal to get the Dragons to September?
Following an incredible two and a half season run at the top of the league, during which they amassed a 44 – 15 record, the Dragons came right back to the pack over the 2nd half of last season. The 2012 side is not hugely weaker than the previous edition, but it is weaker all the same. Throughout their dominant run the Dragons built their victories methodically, by playing risk free football, taking the points on offer, and relying upon their superior defensive ability to hold the lead. I expect their defensive standards to be maintained under new coach Steve Price, but their reduced ability to put points on the board without Boyd and Gasnier will put too much pressure on the defence to restrict opponents to low scores. The Dragons won only 4 of their last 14 matches last season (including finals) and while I expect their win % to be better than that in 2012, it won’t be sufficient to get them into the 8.
May make the 8
11. Cronulla Sharks
2011 Season – 13th (7 – 17)
Expert Consensus – 13th (14% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 38% chance of finals, 3% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
Todd Carney is the biggest name in an impressive recruiting class that includes Isaac De Gois, Bryce Gibbs, Andrew Fifita and Ben Ross. Fifita, Gibbs and Ross provide readymade replacements for the two key offseason departures, Luke Douglas and Kade Snowden.
"I'll never drink again!"
2012 Outlook
The Sharks have pinned their hopes on the undeniable talent and questionable commitment of Todd Carney who has been shown the road by his previous team due to behavioural issues. The last time that happened, his new team reached the Grand Final, and Carney won the Dally M medal. So it is understandable that the hopes of Sharks fans are sky high this preseason. I certainly expect an improved performance from both the Sharks this season, as Carney will bring the flair and playmaking ability that the Sharks have lacked in recent years. The forward pack is strong and they will be in the match most weeks, but ultimately they lack the strike power out wide and will rely too much on Carney in the playmaking area to make the finals.
10. Parramatta Eels
2011 Season – 14th (6 – 1 – 17)
Expert Consensus – 14th (24% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 39% chance of finals, 4% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
It says a lot about Parramatta’s recent halfbacks that new number 7 Chris Sandow is being touted as a replacement for a man who retired 22 years ago, rather than Jeff Robson. Overshadowed by the Sandow hype are the arrivals of fellow backs Willie Tonga, Esi Tonga and Ben Roberts. Justin Poore can essentially be regarded as a new recruit given his
"Chris who?"
negligible number of matches played since his arrival at the club. None of the departing players had any significant impact on the 2011 campaign.
2012 Outlook
Stephen Kearney’s second season in charge finds him better equipped for success than in 2011. The Eels have recruited well and the arrival of Sandow will ensure that Jarryd Hayne will not have to take over the roles of both ballplayer and ball runner, which he attempted to do all too often last season. The Eels showed impressive fight last season, and were well in the contest for the majority of their losses. The arrival of Sandow should convert several of those close losses into wins this season, however I’m predicting that while they will remain in the finals race until the closing stages, they will fall just short. Sandow played the season of his life last year and could not get Souths to September. He’ll need to produce a similar effort this year if the Eels are to make it.
9. New Zealand Warriors
2011 Season – 6th (14 – 10)
Expert Consensus – 6th (62% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 60% chance of finals, 10% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
The Warriors return with a very similar 17 to that which contested last year’s Grand Final, with Lance Hohaia and Aaron Heremaia the only departures. The gap at the hooking spot is expected to be filled by Nathan Friend. Several graduates of the premiership winning Under 20’s side are expected to press for spots in first grade throughout the year, with damaging centre Konrad Hurrell the one most likely to impress.
2012 Outlook
The Warrior’s talent and roster is certainly capable of seeing finals action for what would be the 3rd straight year. However, I feel that this team is the most likely of the favourites to drop out of the 8. James Maloney’s impending departure has the potential to be a distraction. Shaun Johnson has tremendous talent but will it will likely take a few seasons of maturation before finding the week to week consistency that is required. The victory over hot favourites the Storm in the preliminary final last year showed the heights that the Warriors are capable of scaling, yet two weeks previous they were humbled by 40 in Brisbane, and they were seconds away from exiting the finals in straight sets before Inu’s miraculous try vs the Tigers. At their best the Warriors are a definite top 4 side and premiership contender, however I am predicting their campaign will reach those heights infrequently enough to see them finish just outside the 8.
Should make the 8
8. Canterbury Bulldogs
2011 Season – 9th (12 – 12)
Expert Consensus – 9th (57% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 52% chance of finals, 5% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
The Dogs high profile recruit for 2012, James Graham, arrives with a workhorse reputation forged during an exceptional career in the English super league. He will have justified his fee if he can replicate the impact of recent English arrivals Gareth Ellis and Sam Burgess. Jamal Idris took his extreme raw talent and questionable work rate to the Titans in the offseason which along with the retirement of captain Andrew Ryan were the notable losses from the roster which finished 9th last year. New captain Michael Ennis was restricted to only 12 matches during 2011 and you would have to think that if available during the closing weeks of the season he would’ve made the difference between making the finals and missing out.
"Don't worry big fella... I will never leave"
2012 Outlook
2011 was a tumultuous year for the Dogs off the field, as the club sacked their coach mid-season for the first time in their history, before achieving the unlikely coup of attracting premiership coach Des Hasler to Belmore. On field, Canterbury started brightly and lead the competition early behind the brilliant form of Jamal Idris, before fading over the 2nd half of the year. New captain Michael Ennis is the key to everything the dogs produce in attack and I’m expecting that an injury free year from him combined with the positive influence of Hasler and new recruit Graham will see the dogs sneak into the 8 in 2012.
7. Canberra Raiders
2011 Season – 15th (6 – 18)
Expert Consensus – 11th (24% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 33% chance of finals, 4% chance of premiership
The end of the Raider's 2010 season. And 2011.
Roster Analysis
With Shaun Berrigan the only significant newcomer, the improvement in the Raider’s line-up is almost entirely due to the prospect of their stars having better luck with injury in 2012. Terry Campese’s 8 minute long season has been well documented, but in addition Josh Dugan managed only 13 matches for the lime green in 2011 and Tom Learoyd Lahrs played only 12. The retirement of inspirational captain Allan Tongue will leave a hole in the dressing room.
2012 Outlook
I am tipping the Raiders to be the big improvers of 2012. The combination of huge forwards, a great ball running and ball playing half and fast backs proved impossible to handle for the majority of sides over the back half of 2010. 2011 started in similar fashion with a thrashing of the Sharks but after round 1 the Raiders went on to win only 5 of the next 23 matches to only narrowly avoid the wooden spoon on for and against. As the losses snowballed, confidence drained out of the young side and several of their defeats were more self-inflicted than due to great play by the opposition. If Campese can return to the form of 2010 and Dugan can stay on the paddock for the full season, I’m tipping a return to the finals for the Green Machine. A strong start to the season will be crucial to regain confidence from the horrors of 2011.
6. North Queensland Cowboys
2011 Season – 7th (14 – 10)
Expert Consensus – 7th (38% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 52% chance of finals, 6% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
The roster is largely unchanged from 2011. Willie Tonga has left for Parramatta, and his centre spot will be filled by either new arrival Kane Linnett or Antonia Winterstein, whose promising 2011 season was reduced cut short at 9 matches due to injury. If Robert Lui can overcome his off field problems, he will challenge the incumbent Ray Thompson for the right to partner Johnathon Thurston in the halves. Toyota Cup cannonball Jason Taumalolo has huge potential and should play a major role in the Cowboys season.
2012 Outlook
big. unit.
The Cowboys rediscovered their mojo in 2011, after cutting loose a lot of the dead wood that had dragged down the 2010 campaign. They have the best halfback and best prop in the game, and Dairy Farmers Stadium is once again a fortress after the Cowboys won 9 of 12 there last season. There is significant upside for the club if Tariq Sims continues to emerge as one of the most damaging backrowers in the league, if Jason Taumalolo can have the expected impact and if Robert Lui can form a dangerous partnership with JT. The roster is strong enough to ensure a return to the finals. Concerns will arise if Willie Tonga’s finishing is unable to be replaced or if Thurston’s domination of the ball stunts the development of his young halves partners – it is not for no reason that the cowboys have been unable to find a permanent halves partner for Thurston since his arrival in 2005.
Will make the 8
5. Brisbane Broncos
2011 Season – 3rd (18 – 6)
Expert Consensus – 5th (76% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 60% chance of finals, 9% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
A 34 yr old departs, a 36 yr old arrives. Petero Civoniceva is well known to Bronco’s fans, and he will add depth and experience to an already impressive pack. Corey Norman will be given the unenviable task of filling Lockyer’s enormous shoes at five eighth.
Yow Yeh's aerial ability has helped Broncos fans forget about whatsisname
2012 Outlook
Ordinarily, a club which won 18 matches with a young exceptionally talented line-up, and which was retaining every player except a 34 yr old would be raging premiership favourites. But when that player is future immortal Darren Lockyer the equation is not that simple. The Broncos have divided opinion this off season like few teams I can remember – some think that they will miss the finals, some expect them to win the premiership. The potential is there for both. I think that Lockyer’s absence will be felt most in the big games, and that the team will not quite reach the heights of 2011. However given they were 6 wins ahead of 9th place last season, they can afford to slip a little and still comfortably make the finals.
4. Newcastle Knights
2011 Season – 8th (12 – 12)
Expert Consensus – 3rd (100% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 67% chance of finals, 10% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
Nathan Tinkler and Wayne Bennett wasted no time in attracting some big names to the Knights cause. Darius Boyd and up and coming star Alex McKinnon have followed their mentor up the F3, while Tahu, Buderus and Snowden have all been persuaded to return home. The Knights roster is undoubtedly stronger than in 2011, with Isaac De Gois Cameron Ciraldo and Adam Macdougall the key losses.
"It's a new day"
2012 Outlook
It’s a new day in Newcastle. One of the poorest clubs in the league became one of the wealthiest overnight upon Nathan Tinkler’s wildly popular takeover of the club. Along with a decidedly stronger squad came supercoach Wayne Bennett. Bennett’s impact on St.George-Illawarra cannot be overstated. He took essentially the same squad that had scraped into 7th in 2008 and led them to back to back minor premierships and a first premiership in 31 years by instilling a strong defensive mentality and disciplined attacking system. He arguably has more to work with talent wise than he did at the Dragons and accordingly expectations are high of a return to the glory days. This could be a huge year for Kurt Gidley, who often has seemed guilty of trying to do too much in recent seasons. If Bennett can bring some direction and focus to the Knights the squad is strong enough for top 4 honours.
3. Wests Tigers
2011 Season – 4th (15 – 9)
Expert Consensus – 1st (95% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 71% chance of finals, 12% chance of premiership
It all clicked for the Tigers in week 1 of the finals. Seven days later, they were gone.
Roster Analysis
The signing of Adam Blair and resultant departures of Bryce Gibbs and Andrew Fifita appeared to cause major disruption to the Tiger’s 2011 campaign. The club will be expecting that the NZ vice-captain will repay them during 2012 with his distinctive mix of strength and skill. Robert Lui’s halfback spot will be (at least initially) filled by Tim Moltzen, with 19 yr old James Tedesco taking over at fullback. Chris Lawrence and Lote Tuqiri played only 9 matches each during 2011 and their return to full fitness will be a big boost to what was already one of the NRL’s most potent backlines.
2012 Outlook
The Tigers looked premiership winners at times during their 9 game winning streak last year, however for the 2nd consecutive year were unable to hold a halftime lead in a finals game, exiting to a 79th minute Krisnan Inu try that was as heartbreaking in both its unorthodox nature and the ease to which it could have been prevented. The deep gloom hanging over Tigers fans was partially lifted by the news that crowd favourite Tim Moltzen would be remaining for at least one more season. At their best, the Tigers have the squad to win the premiership, with an international studded pack that rivals the fearsome Balmain 6 of the late 80’s, and a potent backline sparked by Benji Marshall and Chris Lawrence. They can also be maddeningly inconsistent – it is worth remembering that prior to the 9 game streak they sat at 7 – 9 and looked unlikely to make the finals. The key determinant of the Tigers success this year appears to be the halves partnership. If Tim Moltzen can make a success of it and reduce the pressure on Marshall the Tigers should expect top 4.
2. Manly Sea Eagles
2011 Season – 2nd (18 – 6)
Expert Consensus – 4th (90% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 57% chance of finals, 8% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
The bulk of the premier’s squad returns to defend the title, with wingers William Hopoate and Michael Robertson the only departures. Their spots will be taken by the fit again David Williams and Michael Oldfield. Jason King missed the back end of the premiership season through injury and his return will boost the forward pack.
2012 Outlook
Manly’s 2012 season will offer fascinating empirical evidence on the question “How important is a coach to the team’s success?” If Hasler were still taking the reins at Narrabeen, the defending premiers would expect to be on the front line of premiership betting. As it is, after a disruptive off season, the side containing all the key players from last year’s triumph is only rated 5th favourites on Betfair. Key performers Brett and Glenn Stewart, Watmough and Lyon are all in the prime of their careers, while young stars Daly Cherry Evans, Kieran Foran and Tony Williams figure to reach greater heights as they gain experience. DCE plays like a veteran and would not seem to be a prime candidate to suffer the dreaded 2nd year syndrome that has effected other playmakers in recent years (Ahem.. Tim Smith.. cough cough). It would take a major premiership hangover to see the Sea Eagles miss the top 4.
1. Melbourne Storm
2011 Season – 1st (19 – 5)
Expert Consensus – 2nd (100% chance of finals)
Betfair Odds – 67% chance of finals, 11% chance of premiership
Roster Analysis
Another big name from the glory days departs in the form of Adam Blair, while recent arrival Beau Champion has left for the sunnier climate of the Gold Coast. Two veteran forwards, Jason Ryles and Ryan Hoffman, arrive to be rejuvenated by the Bellamy methods.
2012 Outlook
The storm roster appears slightly weaker than in 2011, but as long as they retain the best ‘spine’ in the league they are a strong chance of being thereabouts in September. Last year was the 4th time in the last 6 seasons that the Storm have finished on top after the premiership rounds, and they won the grand final in one of those other two seasons. Some felt that they overachieved to finish first in 2011 however with a stable playing roster, imposing home record and a Craig Bellamy inspired consistency of effort and performance that is the envy of the league, I’m tipping them to repeat the does in 2012. 
NRL Season 2012 – Gambling Manifesto
"I backed us at $7.00!!"
With less than two weeks to go until the first kickoff of the 2012 NRL season, many fans are eagerly anticipating not just following their team from week to week, but also punting on the footy and winning a little extra cash on the side. Due to its even nature, the NRL is an unpredictable competition and while this makes picking winners difficult, it also means the opportunity is there for the astute gambler to make some money at good odds.
To (hopefully) assist in that process, I’ve taken a look at the results of the 2011 NRL season from a gambling perspective, to highlight where some value might be found during 2012.
My method has been to examine the different returns that would have been achieved in 2011, from alternatively backing:
- Heavy favourites/outsiders vs Slight favourites/outsiders
- Favourites or outsiders at different times during the season
- Individual teams over the season
Returns by Odds Category
The below table splits the 2011 season into four categories
- Matches between a Heavy Home Team Favourite and Away Underdog
- Matches between a Slight Home Team Favourite and Away Underdog
- Matches between a Slight Away Team Favourite and Home Underdog
- Matches between a Heavy Away Team Favourite and Home Underdog
and presents the results of these matches, and the return on outlay over the season for someone who’d bet on every match in that category.
The lesson here is to avoid the heavy favourites, and back the big outsiders.
In the 22 matches during 2011 in which the Away team was paying 3.80 or higher, the long shot away team underdogs won 7 times[1]. While this may not seem a successful result, because the Away teams were at such long odds, backing all 22 of them (with equal stakes) would have returned a 53% profit. By comparison, backing all the heavy home team favourites would have returned an 18% loss.
Similarly, in the 9 matches where the home team was paying $2.95 or more, the home side underdog won on 4 occasions[2], yielding a 55% profit, compared to a 28% loss from backing the heavily favoured away sides.
It seems that the chances of a long shot underdog winning the match was underestimated by betting agencies[3] – either that or they were deliberately underpricing the heavy favourites to discourage punters from backing them. The goal of betting agencies is to have an even payout for either result. This way they make their commission regardless of the result and minimise risk. Winding in the prices of heavier favourites can on occasion be a deliberate ploy aimed at achieving this goal, which may explain why the returns from backing the underdogs was so high.
The second conclusion to draw is that in matches when the odds are more even, look towards the home favourites for best value – the return of 15% is clearly superior to that from backing the slight away favourites, or either the slight home or away underdogs.
There is a large opportunity to bet on slight home favourites (ie home favourites paying more than 1.28), with over half the matches in the NRL last year fitting this description. While a 15% return may not seem large on an individual bet basis, it is a considerable achievement over the length of a season, especially in light of the fact that betting agencies frame markets in order to achieve a 5% return, meaning the expected result for the average punter is a 5% loss.
Returns at different stages of the season
It makes sense that the largest opportunities are going to be found early in the season, before betting agencies or punters have had a chance to properly evaluate the teams. This theory is borne out by the 2011 experience.
The first chart shows the returns achieved over the season if you had backed every winner individually each week. Clearly this is not a realistic scenario (and if you achieved this, you’d hardly be concerned with any trends in the amount of cash you were winning), however it does provide a good measure of the ability of the betting agencies to frame their markets accurately. If more favourites win, the ‘Winning Teams % Return’ will naturally be lower, and if heavier favourites win the returns will also be lower.
The decreasing trend indicates that as the season wore on, more favourites and shorter priced favourites were winning, meaning less value available for the punter. This result is expected, and is no doubt due to the betting agencies and fans in general getting a better read on teams ability and form as the season rolls on.
This trend is further illustrated when we examine the returns from backing every favourite vs backing all the underdogs over the season.
The best returns from backing favourites came late in the season, and the best returns on underdogs came in the early rounds.
We have already seen that backing the heavy underdogs yielded the best returns, and now we see that backing underdogs early in the year is recommended. The combination of these findings is also true. The heavy away outsiders won 7 of 22 matches in total, and that record stood at 4 win out of 5 in the first 10 rounds, and then 3 from 17 over the remainder of the season. Likewise the heavy home outsiders won 4 of 9 in total, with the record in the first ten rounds being 2 out of 3, and 2 out of 6 post round 10.
The NRL gambling manifesto based on the 2011 NRL season is essentially
- Back heavy outsiders early in the season
- Back slight home favourites, especially later in the season
Returns by Individual Team
The reliability of the betting performance of each team in 2011 as an indicator of how to invest in 2012 is limited for two obvious reasons:
- The teams themselves have changed and will no doubt perform differently
- The betting agencies views of the teams will have changed
Regardless, there are still some interesting results to highlight in the above table
Unpredictable Tigers
As seen above, the Wests Tigers had the worst return as favourites of any team in the top 10, the best return of any team as underdogs, and were the team that the betting agencies found most difficult to predict, with a ‘Total Accuracy’ of only 54% (Total Accuracy is defined as the Number of times a team won as favourites, plus the number of times it lost as underdog, divided by the total number of matches played)
The Tigers have been pegged by most agencies as the favourites for the 2012 title, but their recent history has shown them to be unreliable favourites. I’d be cautious in backing the tigers too often when they are favourites to win.
Reliable Favourites
It is no surprise to see that 20%+ returns achieved from backing the Storm, Sea Eagles and Broncos when they were favourites. All three clubs were reliable performers which remained in the top 4 nearly all season.
Two other clubs lower down the ladder were also reliable when favourites. The Cowboys won 9 of the 11 games they were favoured in, while the Knights claimed 7 of 9 when favoured. For both these regional one team town clubs, this reliability was built on a strong home record. All 9 of the matches that the Knights started favourite in were played in Newcastle. Of the 9 matches that the Cowboys started favourite in at Dairy Farmers Stadium, they won 8. Both of these clubs are likely to receive more respect from the betting agencies this season, and should be favoured more often. Getting on them when they’re favourite to win and at home should be a fairly safe bet in 2012 as well.
Overachiever and proud of it
The Storm, Broncos and Sea Eagles were all tipped to finish outside the top 6 by betting agencies at the start of last season. It’s easier said than done, but if you can identify a team which is under rated by the betting agencies at the outset and jump aboard them early, the returns are sure to be healthy.
In Round 2 2011, eventual premiers Manly started 4.00 outsiders against the soon to be also ran Roosters. That sort of value will again be available in early 2012, for those who are perceptive enough to understand the true quality of the teams before the betting agencies and the media catch on.
[1] The seven upsets – Sea Eagles def Roosters R2, Titans def Raiders R4, Warriors def Storm R7, Raiders def Storm R10, Cowboys def Knights R18, Rabbitohs def Dragons R21, Roosters def Dragons R23
[2] The four upsets – Sharks def Dragons R2, Rabbitohs def Tigers R10, Raiders def Dragons R20, Roosters def Storm R26
[3] For the statistically inclined, I calculated that if the betting agency prices were correct, the probability of 11 or more upsets occurring out of those 31 matches is only 6.5%. That is pretty strong evidence to suggest that the agency prices were not correct, and that they’d underestimated the underdog’s chances of victory
